Baltic Fintech Legal Outlook

Baltic Fintech Legal Outlook focuses on these regulations which will shape the regulatory outlook for fintech companies across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 2026. 

Foreword by Ellex 

In 2026, the Baltic FinTech landscape is defined by regulatory maturity, consolidation and cross-border ambitionEstonia remains a digitally advanced and credible Fintech hub, benefiting from constructive engagement by the regulator and a shift towards sustainable, pan-European scaling. Latvia gains momentum with its FinTech Strategy 2026–2027, supported by active regulatory backing and increased licensing activity, strengthening its position as an attractive innovation hub. Lithuania continues to offer efficient EU market access, while facing heightened supervisory expectations around AML, operational resilience, AI, cybersecurity and governance as EU regulatory integration deepens. 

Estonia enters 2026 as a mature fintech hub, building on its strong start-up culture, advanced digital infrastructure and a well experienced regulator in technology-driven business models. While the market has peaked statistically in terms of start-ups and unicorns per capita, the focus has shifted from rapid growth to sustainability and cross-border scaling.  

Regulation continues to play a decisive role in the sector, in line with broader EU trends. Estonia’s relatively compact regulatory environment remains an advantage, allowing for swift and constructive dialogue with the regulator. The regulator is placing strong emphasis on further enhancing the efficiency of Estonia’s regulatory landscape by reducing administrative burdens for market participants, streamlining regulatory requirements and introducing new solutions to facilitate a smoother and more efficient licensing process. At the same time, supervisory practice has become more selective, particularly following increased scrutiny of digital asset service providers, resulting in higher licensing standards and a smaller but more credible market. 

From a regulatory perspective, 2026 is defined by implementation rather than transition. MiCAR has changed the digital asset landscape, DORA has shifted the focus to operational resilience and ICT risk management, the upcoming application of the PSD3/PSR is redefining market access and open banking and artificial intelligence is reshaping how the financial services are provided. These developments require fintech companies to combine technological innovation with regulatory maturity, reinforcing Estonia’s position as a stable and credible jurisdiction for financial services innovation. 

Latvia steps into 2026 with a new FinTech Strategy for 2026-2027 with a main objective to ensure that Latvia becomes a competitive FinTech hub in Europe by offering companies and investors an attractive environment for innovation, growth, and the development of new services. 

With strong support from the legislators and the financial supervisory authority, Latvijas Banka, the country is on the right path to achieve this ambitious goal, as evidenced by an increasing number of authorizations issued to FinTech companies in 2025, including two CASP authorizations.

In 2026 Lithuania’s fintech ecosystem should anticipate alignment efforts with evolving EU frameworks, as well as stronger supervisory emphasis on AML, operational resilience, AI/automated risk models, cybersecurity and governance arrangements. Deeper EU regulatory integration with MiCAR, AML regulation, PSR and PSD3, among others, will be critical in ensuring both a growing competitiveness and appropriate risk management. While Lithuania remains as one of the key players in the European fintech ecosystem with a rapid market entry potential, stricter conduct expectations, supervisory oversight and maturity of compliance and risk management are expected to be defining topics this year. 

Fintech market outlook – external experts

In the fintech market outlook, the external experts share their thoughts on the most important legal developments and pivotal market trends that will shape the fintech market in the Baltics in 2026. 

Ian Kalla, Head of Fintech Working Group, Finance Estonia

If Estonia’s fintech ecosystem were a kitchen appliance, it wouldn’t be the flashy new KitchenAid – it would be the reliable coffee machine you turn on every morning. You likely don’t pay too much attention to it when it works, but you definitely miss it when it doesn’t. 

In 2025, the broader startup ecosystem delivered strong revenue growth, with fintech making a meaningful contribution. Just a few years ago, over 70% of Estonian fintech firms were in their earliest stages and less than five years old; today the sector has visibly matured. Fintech is not a mere startup niche anymore, but a strong ecosystem driven by revenue, cross-border activity, and long-term viability. 

Payments continue to hold as the backbone of the sector. In addition to widely adopted instant payments, account-to-account solutions, and open banking, we are on the verge of a revolution with stablecoins redefining the rails of money movement. Emphasis is shifting toward reliability, fraud prevention, and harmonisation across markets, as open finance is beginning to emerge as a natural extension of existing systems. 

Digital assets are also settling into a more predictable rhythm from 2026. With MiCAR establishing a single European framework, companies operating in this space now have clearer expectations around governance, capital, and consumer protection. For some, the transition may feel demanding, but it also brings the benefit of knowing the rules of the game – and the ability to play as equals among the rest of the financial sector, across the entire EU. 

Across all segments, regulation is shaping how fintech companies are built and run. DORA places operational resilience and ICT risk management at the centre of financial services, while AML and sanctions compliance remain key supervisory priorities. As regulatory complexity increases, many turn to AI-driven automation tools to manage compliance efficiently at scale. 

Going into 2026, we can expect the Estonian fintech ecosystem to consistently brew that perfect cup of coffee in the morning rush. Leveraging our foundational strengths, the fintechs are in great position to lead the most pressing trends amidst regulatory shifts – innovating dependably and scaling responsibly. 

Tīna Lūse, Managing Director, FinTech Latvia association

Looking back at FinTech Industry in 2025, we see that it isn’t just about growth in company count, employment, or tax contribution – it’s about how the sector is growing. What we’re seeing is a shift from a fast-moving, fragmented market to a more structured, policy-aware and economically relevant industry. The combination of scale (€369M turnover, €90M in taxes), regulatory engagement, and collective action signals a clear shift. Latvian fintechs are moving from participants in the system to co-architects of it – contributing to policy design, infrastructure development, and responsible market standards. 

New licensed entrants, MiCA implementation, and the National Fintech Strategy 2026-2027 demonstrates us that the industry is no longer experimenting on the margins, but operating as a grown participant of the financial system. Just as importantly, the ecosystem is learning to grow collectively, allowing both regulated and non-regulated players to benefit from better market conditions over time. 

The data clearly shows that Latvian fintech is maturing – and with maturity comes influence. 

Jekaterina Govina, former regulator, national representative in European regulatory authorities, fintech expert

Lithuania continues to enjoy its position as a regional FinTech hub with a strong global profile, driven by a vibrant ecosystem that offers access to talent, infrastructure, and the European Union market. The payments sector remains a key pillar of the Lithuanian FinTech market. Although the issuance of new licenses has slowed down, the Lithuanian market remains attractive for acquisitions, which are expected to continue as a key trend in 2026. DORA, as well as upcoming regulatory changes under PSD3, PSR are expected to shift market focus towards resilience, fraud prevention, and consolidation. 

We will see a spillover effect from the MiCAR licensing process that began in 2025, with several additional licenses expected to be issued by the Bank of Lithuania. Crypto assets will continue to penetrate the financial sector, as society shows a growing willingness to allocate part of their savings to crypto instruments. According to the ECB, more than 13% of Lithuanian households already hold crypto assets. To respond to customer demand, certain segments of the traditional financial market in Lithuania are expected to gradually move towards offering established crypto products. 

Alternative financing continues to evolve in Lithuania, with the crowdfunding market actively contributing to the revival of the corporate bond market. Capital market activity in the country will also be influenced by the reform of the second pension pillar, which is expected to redirect a significant share of citizens’ savings towards various lending and investment platforms. This process coincides with the growing interest of Lithuanians in investments and aligns well with the EU’s priority to increase retail participation in capital markets. 

Fraud prevention, AML, and sanctions compliance will remain among the top priorities for both financial market participants and regulators, as AML-related enforcement measures continue to dominate supervisory activity. It is therefore unsurprising that FinTech companies are heavily investing in the automation of AML processes, largely relying on third-party solutions. Advances in artificial intelligence will further reinforce this trend, with an increasing number of case management tasks being handled by AI-driven tools. 

Regulatory focus will also remain on the governance of FinTech companies, particularly following the entry into force of new governance guidelines at the beginning of this year. This development is welcome and may contribute to reducing overall risk in the FinTech market. 

Finally, while one might hope to see signs of administrative burden relief for the financial market inspired by Mario Draghi–driven EU initiatives and local supervisory actions, I remain rather sceptical about their practical implementation and impact on the market. 

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