In 2025 the transaction market in Estonia grew by 18.5% – the largest deals reached record levels
The market analysis Transaction Radar, prepared by Ellex, shows that a total of 205 transactions were carried out in Estonia in 2025, which is 32 more than in the previous year. Transaction activity particularly increased in the second half of the year, confirming the market’s recovery after an earlier period of caution.
According to Ellex Partner Risto Vahimets, the macroeconomic environment is supporting further revitalisation of transaction activity. “Banks are ready to provide financing, interest rates remain at reasonable levels, and pressure to conclude deals has increased both due to accumulated capital and because many companies have long been held by funds,” Vahimets noted. At the same time, he emphasised that geopolitical uncertainty continues to remain a significant risk factor. “In the coming year, we expect a focus on technology, above all on artificial intelligence, healthcare and energy technologies. Private equity and financial investors will gradually begin to return to the market, but the direction of the market will most likely continue to be shaped by strategic buyers.”
Transactions carried out in Estonia were distributed as follows:
- 83 venture capital and technology transactions
- 95 traditional mergers and acquisitions
- 14 large-scale real estate transactions
- 13 issuances
Among the largest landmark deals of the year were the sale of Rimi Baltic to the Danish retail group Salling Group for EUR 1.3 billion, as well as INGKA’s acquisition of a forestry portfolio from Södra in Estonia and Latvia.
One of the key regulatory milestones of the past year was the amendment to the Competition Act that entered into force in July, bringing the regulation into line with the ECN+ Directive. A new competition supervision procedure was established, ensuring principles similar to criminal proceedings. During 2025, 45 merger notifications were submitted to the Competition Authority, nine of which resulted in the initiation of additional proceedings. In light of the updated law, an increase in the duration of proceedings is expected during the adaptation period.
The largest deal in Europe was the acquisition of the Dutch company JDE Peet’s by Dr Pepper for EUR 19.7 billion. Globally, infrastructure and technology transactions dominated – the largest of these was Union Pacific’s acquisition of Norfolk Southern for USD 86 billion. No European transaction entered the global TOP 10, indicating a concentration of capital in America.
The international transaction market in 2025 presented a mixed picture. According to Dealogic, the number of transactions in the first half of the year was 16% lower compared to the same period in 2024, while the total value of transactions, on the contrary, increased by 28%. This indicates a clear shift towards large strategic transactions. Infrastructure and technology deals dominated. The largest was Union Pacific’s acquisition of Norfolk Southern for USD 86 billion, followed by the merger of American Water Works and Essential Utilities valued at USD 63 billion, and the acquisition of Electronic Arts by a Saudi fund together with Silver Lake and Affinity Partners for USD 55 billion.
Of the ten largest transactions worldwide, three were US infrastructure deals, two were cybersecurity services transactions, two were medical transactions, and two were transactions in the gaming and entertainment industries, reflecting a clear trend towards secure and strategic investments.
The Transaction Radar has been published since 2020, shortly before the end of each half-year. It analyses the background and reasons behind the largest transactions in Estonia and forecasts possible trends for upcoming periods.
