Ellex Transaction Radar: summary of the first half of 2025
Ellex Transaction Radar summarises the most important trends of the transaction market in the first half of 2025. The first half of 2025 saw 96 transactions in Estonia, just two more than in the previous half-year. The highest number of transactions over the past four quarters occurred in the most recent quarter (52), but the overall transaction volume has remained at the same low level as at the end of 2024.
According to the Transaction Radar, the European and global transaction markets are paralyzed from the general geopolitical instability. There were certainly other important factors but the main driver was President Trump’s tariff circus which affected the transaction market in the half-year that just ended. In Estonia the scene is still negative due to inflation and economic recession.
In the first half of 2025, a total of 96 transactions were registered in Estonia, divided as follows:
- 39 venture capital and technology transactions;
- 43 traditional M&A transactions;
- 6 major real estate transactions;
- 8 share issues (incl. OTC issues).
According to Ellex partner Risto Vahimets, the energy, defence, and technology sectors remain in the spotlight. “However, we must seriously address issues that the rest of the world has largely overcome but which still affect both the investment climate and the overall state of the country and society. I’m referring to inflation and economic recession,” Vahimets noted.
Partner Sven Papp added that one positive takeaway from the first half of the year was the sustained interest and presence of foreign investors – a subject that has raised many questions and even concerns in recent years. “Just like elsewhere in the world, turbulent times give local investors a home-field advantage, as they tend to feel somewhat more secure here. Still, we’re seeing institutional investors remaining passive and in a wait-and-see mode everywhere, which will likely continue until the outlook becomes more predictable,” said Papp.
Ellex Transaction Radar has been published since 2020, following the end of each half-year period. It provides insights into the key drivers behind major deals in Estonia and forecasts potential developments for the periods ahead.
