Baltic Private M&A Deal Points Study 2026: larger deals return as investor confidence grows

24 September, 2026

On 24 September, Kai Art Center hosted the launch of the Baltic Private M&A Deal Points Study 2026, offering fresh insights into developments in the Baltic private mergers and acquisitions market. The study was prepared under the auspices of the Baltic private equity and venture capital associations and with contributions from seven leading law firms, including Ellex. Ellex’s contribution to the study included experts Ott Aava, Brigitta Toomingas, Katrina Külm, Gerda Liik, Alla Kuznetsova, Rutt Värk, Raimonds Slaidiņš and Paulius Gruodis.

The study analyses 198 private M&A transactions with a value of at least EUR 1 million completed between April 2024 and March 2026 and involving targets operating in Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania.

The key message is that the confidence in the Baltic market is returning. This is reflected in the increase in transactions exceeding EUR 100 million and the continued dominance of strategic investors. At the same time, transaction processes are becoming longer, buyers remain in a strong negotiating position, and regulatory considerations are playing a growing role in deal execution.

Technology regains its position as the most active sector

Technology, including IT and telecommunications, accounted for 15% of all analysed transactions and regained its position as the most active M&A sector in the Baltics. Meanwhile, the share of energy and utilities transactions fell from 23% to 11%.

Manufacturing and industrial equipment, as well as construction and real estate, each represented 12% of the analysed transactions. The food and agriculture sector also continued its upward trend, increasing from 8% to 9%.

The return of megadeals signals growing confidence

While the Baltic M&A market continues to be dominated by transactions valued below EUR 10 million, the study highlights the return of larger deals. Transactions exceeding EUR 100 million increased from 3% to 6% of the analysed sample, while deals valued between EUR 50 million and EUR 100 million also increased.

According to Ott Aava, the trend reflects growing investor confidence in the region.

The willingness to invest more than EUR 100 million in the Baltics demonstrates that the region continues to be viewed as an attractive investment destination. It is a highly encouraging sign and certainly does not suggest that geopolitical risks have removed the Baltics from investors’ radar.

Strategic investors continue to shape the market

Strategic investors further strengthened their position as the dominant buyer group in the Baltic M&A market, accounting for 73% of all analysed transactions. This compares with 70% in the previous study and 46% in 2022. At the same time, the share of financial and private equity buyers declined from 24% to 17%.

Estonian investors remained the most active acquirers, while Lithuanian and Latvian buyers continued to maintain a strong presence. Among international investors, Swedish and UK buyers stood out as the most active participants.

On the sell-side, the study identified a notable shift. Exits by founders and family-controlled businesses increased significantly, reaching 41% of all analysed transactions and matching the share of strategic sellers. This points to an accelerating generational transition among Baltic business owners.

Transaction processes are taking longer

The study also confirms that transaction timelines are becoming longer. The most common completion period is now six to twelve months, with the share of such transactions increasing from 34% to 38%. A further 14% of transactions took more than a year to complete.

Longer timelines highlight the importance of early preparation, thorough due diligence and timely assessment of regulatory requirements for both buyers and sellers.

The Baltic Private M&A Deal Points Study remains one of the most comprehensive benchmarks of Baltic private M&A practice, providing valuable insights into transaction terms, market standards and negotiation trends.